Randomness 2

[k9870]

I always love to see when people rise against an opressive dictator.......but these people may be even worse.

[S&Wshooter]

Originally Posted by k9870

I always love to see when people rise against an opressive dictator.......but these people may be even worse.

When, in the Middle East, has a situation like this NOT ended up worse?

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by S&Wshooter

When, in the Middle East, has a situation like this NOT ended up worse?

From what I've read, there really isn't a consensus amongst Middle East scholars on whether or not the Egyptian Revolution (if that's what it is) will become another Iranian Revolution, with the Islamists ending up in power. The Muslim Brotherhood has many followers, but it isn't as popular as the media has been making it sound.

[S&Wshooter]

Originally Posted by MT2008

From what I've read, there really isn't a consensus amongst Middle East scholars on whether or not the Egyptian Revolution (if that's what it is) will become another Iranian Revolution, with the Islamists ending up in power. The Muslim Brotherhood has many followers, but it isn't as popular as the media has been making it sound.

If they fell threatened, they will attempt to remove the competition. It'll probably end up like Rhodesia: One free election and then a dictator who is in power for the rest of his life

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by S&Wshooter

If they fell threatened, they will attempt to remove the competition. It'll probably end up like Rhodesia: One free election and then a dictator who is in power for the rest of his life

Possibly. I hope not.

[S&Wshooter]

Originally Posted by MT2008

Possibly. I hope not.

It is likely

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by S&Wshooter

It is likely

One of the things to remember is that Mubarak and the Egyptian regime itself are not synonymous. If Mubarak goes, the political order that was set up by the Free Officers (way back in the day) doesn't necessarily disappear. And if the elites are able to bring in someone else, someone whom the military supports, then order is restored, and Egypt remains a secular dictatorship, rather than an Islamic theocracy under MB leadership. This is the big difference between Egypt in 2011 vs. Iran in 1979 - the Shah's regime was a lot more "personalist" compared to Egypt's (since it was a monarchy). When the Shah fell, a political vacuum was instantly created, and Ayatollah Khomeini came out on top. When Mubarak falls, the Egyptian elites still have plenty of control, and that's where the Muslim Brotherhood is going to have difficulty gaining power.

[Jcordell]

Originally Posted by Swordfish941

That cracked up my daughter. Hell cracked me up as well. She's seventeen and a reformed Twilighter (thank god).

[S&Wshooter]

Originally Posted by MT2008

One of the things to remember is that Mubarak and the Egyptian regime itself are not synonymous. If Mubarak goes, the political order that was set up by the Free Officers (way back in the day) doesn't necessarily disappear. And if the elites are able to bring in someone else, someone whom the military supports, then order is restored, and Egypt remains a secular dictatorship, rather than an Islamic theocracy under MB leadership. This is the big difference between Egypt in 2011 vs. Iran in 1979 - the Shah's regime was a lot more "personalist" compared to Egypt's (since it was a monarchy). When the Shah fell, a political vacuum was instantly created, and Ayatollah Khomeini came out on top. When Mubarak falls, the Egyptian elites still have plenty of control, and that's where the Muslim Brotherhood is going to have difficulty gaining power.

Either way, we are already being blamed for their problems

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by S&Wshooter

Either way, we are already being blamed for their problems

So what else is new? Many of our "allies" have been doing the same thing. Even under Sadat and Mubarak, when Egypt was transitioning from a Soviet client state to a de facto American/Israeli ally, the regime constantly put out anti-American and anti-Israeli propaganda. When I was taking Arabic (a few years ago now), I got to see some Egyptian and Jordanian movies which were produced by the government and had not-so-subtle anti-Western messages.

That's the way things work in the Middle East: Most Arabs hate us, so even "friendly" regimes have to make pathetic attempts to convince their people that they aren't our allies. American diplomats and civil servants have learned to shrug it off by now because they know it's not personal.