Uh oh

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

I think if we can sell China on the idea of installing a Chinese-style communist regime in place of Kim and sons, we can make some progress. Reunification makes sense culturally and emotionally, but is a nightmare politically and economically, and thus is not really a realistic option. The Chinese get to keep their buffer, one that they have better control of, that buffer is more stable and progressive, with an improved standard of living for their people, and no one is committing random acts of war against South Korea. Basically, the only people who wouldn't benefit would be Kim and sons. Once China signs off on it, it's on!

That's the closest thing to a possibility I could imagine. But it's still highly unlikely. Moreover, if North Korea even suspected China was willing to do that, there's no telling what they would do in retaliation. It's not a coincidence that most of the DPRK's ballistic missile bases were built as far to the east of the peninsula (read: as far from the PRC) as possible.

[funkychinaman]

Originally Posted by MT2008

That's the closest thing to a possibility I could imagine. But it's still highly unlikely. Moreover, if North Korea even suspected China was willing to do that, there's no telling what they would do in retaliation. It's not a coincidence that most of the DPRK's ballistic missile bases were built as far to the east of the peninsula (read: as far from the PRC) as possible.

I think if the Red Chinese drop enough subtle hints to the NK military that all they want is the Kims out of the way, a settlement can be reached. Once they lose China, who else will they have to turn to? If those generals are even a bit pragmatic, they have to know they're screwed without China's backing.

And if NK missiles can reach China, you can be sure Chinese missiles can reach NK.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

I think if the Red Chinese drop enough subtle hints to the NK military that all they want is the Kims out of the way, a settlement can be reached. Once they lose China, who else will they have to turn to? If those generals are even a bit pragmatic, they have to know they're screwed without China's backing.

That's good point. But I would expect that at this point, the Chinese have already considered this. If they really had a failsafe way to separate the Kims from the generals, I imagine they would have done it by now.

And ultimately, the Koreans are so xenophobic that any leader who is seen as a puppet of an outside power - even the Chinese - would never survive.

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

And if NK missiles can reach China, you can be sure Chinese missiles can reach NK.

No doubt. But putting it on the Sea of Japan also makes it both more vulnerable and more provocative to the Japanese. That's as much an indication of a lack of faith in China as an ally as it is an indication of how much they fear/hate Japan.

[funkychinaman]

Originally Posted by MT2008

And ultimately, the Koreans are so xenophobic that any leader who is seen as a puppet of an outside power - even the Chinese - would never survive.

A) How would they know? All media is controlled by the government. B) As if the people could actually do anything about it even if they did know.

Originally Posted by MT2008

No doubt. But putting it on the Sea of Japan also makes it both more vulnerable and more provocative to the Japanese. That's as much an indication of a lack of faith in China as an ally as it is an indication of how much they fear/hate Japan.

I wouldn't take anything way from the hatred/paranoia of Japan. Not only is there the historical animosity (Probably the only thing you can get North and South Koreans, and the PRC and the ROC to agree on,) but Japan is also home to much of the American military.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

A) How would they know? All media is controlled by the government. B) As if the people could actually do anything about it even if they did know.

It's not the people who matter; it's factions within the regime. My understanding is that many of the KPA's generals are more nationalistic and bellicose than the Kims themselves. It really might not even be possible for China to find anyone within the regime who is more friendly to them than the Kims. If they did install a puppet leader, said leader would probably have a great deal of difficulty winning over the loyalty of the KPA (more of a challenge than Kim Jong-Un faces now), and might face rapid marginalization. In the DPRK, a lack of military support means political weakness.

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

I wouldn't take anything way from the hatred/paranoia of Japan. Not only is there the historical animosity (Probably the only thing you can get North and South Koreans, and the PRC and the ROC to agree on,) but Japan is also home to much of the American military.

Yes, true. But think about it this way: If you trusted China enough as an ally, wouldn't it make the most sense to build a missile base as close to China (and within range of potential defending Chinese troops) as possible? Obviously, it's not going to make a difference in practical terms (missile ranges are far enough that the base is vulnerable to attack either way). But that doesn't mean it lacks symbolic importance, which has its own value (think about how the Russians get upset with us for installing completely useless missile defenses in Poland).

[Excalibur]

Watched a National Geographic video about North Korea.

No cell phones, internet, everything is even more watched and carefully checked than China checks its own media, no wonder why they are always pissed at everyone. occasional black outs even in the capital city with a terrible sanitation system.

What really scares people is the mindset of the people. They are so into their leader and the system, they don't even understand the question of can their leader do wrong.

[funkychinaman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj9uNKT07xs

I saw this on PBS back when it came out in 2003, and found it fascinating. It's the best piece on NK that I've seen so far.