Uh oh

[k9870]

I wish regimes like this were stopped before they became powerful.

And retaliating may be more disastrous in the short run but allowing opressive regimes to continue over time will be more disastrous.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by k9870

I wish regimes like this were stopped before they became powerful.

We already tried and failed. Sometimes, it's just not possible.

Originally Posted by k9870

And retaliating may be more disastrous in the short run but allowing opressive regimes to continue over time will be more disastrous.

It's not just disastrous in the short run; it's disastrous in the long run, too. We're already over-stretched by being in Iraq and Afghanistan. So much so that we couldn't help Georgia when Russia provoked them to war in 2008. Getting ourselves into a war with the DPRK, China, and possibly Russia would be strategic suicide. We aren't that strong, and our allies are not reliable enough. Not to mention that, in case you've forgotten, we're also economically interdependent with China.

Fortunately, the good news is that while China likes keeping the DPRK on its leash, they get angry at the Kims for doing stuff like this. I can almost assure you that regardless of what repercussions the Kims face from us, they will face worse from the Chinese. Since they're dependent upon the PRC, the Chinese have far more leverage against them than we do.

And you're still being short-sighted about regimes. I've already explained to you that there is no democratic opposition in North Korea. If the Kims went away tomorrow, the next regime in power could be even worse. Have you thought about that?

[k9870]

You seem to assume North Korea would stay a separate state, I think the south would annex and reunify the korean peninsula.

[S&Wshooter]

To be honest, if China would tighten it's leash on North Korea, North Korea wouldn't be such of a problem

[k9870]

China should just annex north korea, the chinese abuse human rights but not nearly as much, its like the lesser of two evils, besides, the commies killing each other off in a war is win win for us.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by k9870

You seem to assume North Korea would stay a separate state, I think the south would annex and reunify the korean peninsula.

You're again forgetting the big problem: Economic integration. When you annex an extremely poor country with 25 million people who have been living in ignorance for generations, it's a huge economic drain. South Korea's economy isn't strong enough to withstand a sudden influx of millions of unskilled, illiterate peasants. It would much tougher than Germany being re-unified, for example (and East Germany, while stunted by communism, wasn't nearly as poor as North Korea is).

Originally Posted by k9870

China should just annex north korea, the chinese abuse human rights but not nearly as much, its like the lesser of two evils, besides, the commies killing each other off in a war is win win for us.

I told you earlier than Chinese and Koreans hate each other. There would be civil war if that happened. And it would be a drain on China's own economy to boot. It wouldn't be a win-win for us, either, because China holds most of our debt.

Also, I think I've said this already, but the PRC and DPRK regimes are hardly communist at this point (fascist/ultra-nationalist would be a better description).

Originally Posted by S&Wshooter

To be honest, if China would tighten it's leash on North Korea, North Korea wouldn't be such of a problem

The Chinese do try to keep the North Koreans from getting too crazy (because they, more than anyone else, would stand to lose big from a war in the region), but it's not easy for them.

[funkychinaman]

I think the economic integration issue is the elephant in the room. None of the news stories mention this. Basically, South Korea has nothing to gain in a war, even if they do win. (And I'm guessing they would. I don't see Red China risking their relationship with the US to prop up someone as unreliable as Kim Jong Il or his successors.) According to one report, in the twenty years since German reunification, the German government spent $1.9 TRILLION trying to bring the east up to par, and they're still not even yet. I can't even imagine how much it would cost to reintegrate North Korea. Sadly, the status quo, minus the random attacks, appears to be the best solution for all.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

And I'm guessing they would. I don't see Red China risking their relationship with the US to prop up someone as unreliable as Kim Jong Il or his successors.)

In spite of the U.S.-PRC economic relationship, the Chinese would not be able to tolerate an ROK and/or U.S. war with the DPRK. They also understand, however, that this is extremely unlikely to happen because it would be strategic suicide for all parties involved.

Originally Posted by funkychinaman

According to one report, in the twenty years since German reunification, the German government spent $1.9 TRILLION trying to bring the east up to par, and they're still not even yet. I can't even imagine how much it would cost to reintegrate North Korea. Sadly, the status quo, minus the random attacks, appears to be the best solution for all.

Exactly. Thank you for backing me up on this part.

It is a shitty situation, but in foreign affairs, you have to play the hand you're dealt.

[funkychinaman]

Originally Posted by MT2008

It is a shitty situation, but in foreign affairs, you have to play the hand you're dealt.

But that's the thing: how many times are we going to allow them to poke us with a stick before we (as in the west) retaliate? I don't think anyone wanted to invade Afghanistan before fall 2001 either, but we felt we had no choice. How far does this go? How much does South Korea tolerate? (And after a sunken warship AND shelling, the answer so far is: A LOT.) Will they be dumb enough to go after us ? (as in the US.) And what happens if they do?