Uh oh

[k9870]

I laugh at the news when I see "South threatens retaliation if another attack happens."

This was said when they sank a destroyer with a torpedo attack, nothing happened. The south should bomb a military post in the north.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by k9870

The south should bomb a military post in the north.

Which would have the same effect as declaring war, or escalate the situation. It would be one thing to do that if the South were sure that the North was serious about war. But at this point, the ROK's leaders understand (as do American leaders) that DPRK provocations are to be treated more like natural disasters than serious threats to national security. They're basically just something that the Kims have to do in order to politically out-maneuver their rivals to-be within the Korean People's Army.

Without sounding insensitive (because I hate dictators and human rights violators as much as anyone else), I lost a lot of sympathy for the North Koreans after I learned more about the internal politics of the DPRK. One of the things that Westerners fail to understand is that political repression usually isn't evil totalitarian regimes repressing democratic opposition. More often than not, it's totalitarians repressing other totalitarians who would be just as bad, or worse, if in power. That's how things were in Iraq under Saddam, and from what I understand, that's how things are in North Korea. In situations like that, it's a lot harder for me to feel moved.

There wasn't even much of a democratic movement in South Korea itself until around the 1970s. Part of the reason we kept Rhee and his successors in power for so long was that we knew most of the Korean population hated us and wanted an anti-American regime in power. Plenty of them also supported Kim il-Sung. We only started pressuring the South Korean regime to hold free elections after CIA analysts concluded that the democratic, Western-neutral opposition had a good chance at winning. Before that, most South Koreans probably would have been fine with an undemocratic, America-hating dictator in power.

[k9870]

If I was in power in a country attacks against my people would not go unpunished, all tyrants do stuff like this because they know theres no consequences, they need to be shown there is. Its stupid one side can launch attacks but the other cant since it will start a war.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by k9870

If I was in power in a country attacks against my people would not go unpunished, all tyrants do stuff like this because they know theres no consequences, they need to be shown there is. Its stupid one side can launch attacks but the other cant since it will start a war.

I'm obviously not getting through to you. Yes, it may be bad to let the North Koreans get away with this, but the consequences would be worse, and unless the attack signifies an existential threat to South Korea's security, it's not worth the risk. There's being assertive, and there's being dumb. What you are suggesting is just plain dumb.

Fortunately, this is why people like me are in charge of foreign policy in the U.S.

[k9870]

I wish regimes like this were stopped before they became powerful.

And retaliating may be more disastrous in the short run but allowing opressive regimes to continue over time will be more disastrous.

[MT2008]

Originally Posted by k9870

I wish regimes like this were stopped before they became powerful.

We already tried and failed. Sometimes, it's just not possible.

Originally Posted by k9870

And retaliating may be more disastrous in the short run but allowing opressive regimes to continue over time will be more disastrous.

It's not just disastrous in the short run; it's disastrous in the long run, too. We're already over-stretched by being in Iraq and Afghanistan. So much so that we couldn't help Georgia when Russia provoked them to war in 2008. Getting ourselves into a war with the DPRK, China, and possibly Russia would be strategic suicide. We aren't that strong, and our allies are not reliable enough. Not to mention that, in case you've forgotten, we're also economically interdependent with China.

Fortunately, the good news is that while China likes keeping the DPRK on its leash, they get angry at the Kims for doing stuff like this. I can almost assure you that regardless of what repercussions the Kims face from us, they will face worse from the Chinese. Since they're dependent upon the PRC, the Chinese have far more leverage against them than we do.

And you're still being short-sighted about regimes. I've already explained to you that there is no democratic opposition in North Korea. If the Kims went away tomorrow, the next regime in power could be even worse. Have you thought about that?

[k9870]

You seem to assume North Korea would stay a separate state, I think the south would annex and reunify the korean peninsula.