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Originally Posted by k9870
Civil war, violent revolution, all that is not gonna happen. Kim jong hasn't really been in power for a while months ago many though he had actually died already and it was being kept secret. We can just take pleasure in the fact a brutal dictator bit the dust.
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I think I've demonstrated on numerous occasions that you have a very poor grasp of international affairs, but...if this is really such a trivial matter, why do you think the South is on high alert right now? I suppose you know something that they don't?
Also, I never said that the DPRK is going to descend into civil war (not the kind that broke out in Libya, anyway). There is a possibility of instability from the top down, however, which means that nobody will really be in control of the entire government for a period of time. As I'm sure you can imagine, the countries that have had to deal with North Korea (on nukes and regional security matters) are used to dealing with a single guy. In the situation we're facing now, dealing with Kim Jong Un and his supporters may be useless because another faction in the regime has goals and terms for negotiations that are completely different. That sort of opacity can be very dangerous in foreign relations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swordfish941
So, basically everything is going to go to hell?
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It's not inevitable, but I'd hold off on the celebrations until we know more about what's going on within the regime. The analysts I know are particularly interested in whether the military is 100% behind Kim Jong Un (even though he was promoted to General last year) - if they're not very supportive of him, and (worse) prefer someone else, that means things could get messy.
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Originally Posted by Markit
No, but it has been a remarkable year for global affairs when some long-term tyrants have all been deposed or bit the dust in a series of months, while others are facing the first serious opposition they have had in years.
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I'm happy that so many enemies of America have died this year (Bin Laden, Qaddafi, and now Kim), but the fall of dictators is rarely worthy celebrating until we know who's going to replace them.