MT2008 |
02-02-2011 04:06 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by S&Wshooter
(Post 25057)
It is likely
|
One of the things to remember is that Mubarak and the Egyptian regime itself are not synonymous. If Mubarak goes, the political order that was set up by the Free Officers (way back in the day) doesn't necessarily disappear. And if the elites are able to bring in someone else, someone whom the military supports, then order is restored, and Egypt remains a secular dictatorship, rather than an Islamic theocracy under MB leadership. This is the big difference between Egypt in 2011 vs. Iran in 1979 - the Shah's regime was a lot more "personalist" compared to Egypt's (since it was a monarchy). When the Shah fell, a political vacuum was instantly created, and Ayatollah Khomeini came out on top. When Mubarak falls, the Egyptian elites still have plenty of control, and that's where the Muslim Brotherhood is going to have difficulty gaining power.
|